„Velocity should always be increasing in Scrum. This is a statement that can really set people off, that can really trigger a lot of Scrum professionals — but I’m standing by it, because velocity should, in fact, be increasing over time. People often get upset with that statement and ask me to explain why I think it should be that way. I always turn the question around and ask: why shouldn’t it be increasing?

The reason I ask it that way is simple. If an organization is paying for Scrum Masters — people whose job it is to remove impediments, protect the team from distractions, and support smooth collaboration — why shouldn’t that have a measurable effect on productivity, on velocity? If it doesn’t, then the role isn’t justified, and from a business perspective, it wouldn’t make sense to invest in it.

Second, if we’re actually removing impediments — identifying what’s slowing us down and treating these blockers as opportunities to improve — then getting better should naturally increase our velocity. Third, every team should do at least one Kaizen each Sprint. And one of the main places to identify Kaizen opportunities is the Retrospective. When teams consistently identify and implement Kaizens — and maybe even prioritize more than one — the cumulative effect over time should lead to better performance.

If you think about it: we’re investing in a Scrum Master, investing in impediment removal, investing in retrospectives, investing in Kaizens. Why on earth shouldn’t the team get faster? It absolutely should — and that’s why we say velocity should increase over time.

Now, there are two important caveats. First, velocity shouldn’t go up every single Sprint. There will be fluctuations around a central trend line, because teams have good Sprints and bad Sprints. Unexpected issues affect velocity. So just because the velocity didn’t increase this Sprint doesn’t mean anything is wrong. The point is that the long-term trend should go up.

Second — and this is hugely important — hold this lightly. If I, as a coach, look at a team’s performance and see flat or declining velocity, that’s not a reason to attack or punish the team. It’s a starting point for a conversation. I’ll say, “I noticed this trend. Can we talk about what’s going on?” If you hold it too tightly, people will start gaming the system, and the metric will lose its value. Velocity is an important metric in Scrum, but it’s not everything.

So remember: fluctuations are normal, and the way we use this metric matters more than the number itself. If velocity is going down or flatlining, something’s off — maybe Kaizens aren’t being done, maybe team dynamics are unhealthy, or something else is blocking improvement. But that’s actually an opportunity to get better.

If you want to learn more about topics like this, I teach regular seminars on them. You can find more information at teamflow.de“